Pakistan: Musharraf as Civilian President

THE storm that started brewing on March 9th after General Musharraf filed a reference against the then chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhary has at last claimed the uniform of the military president. But the storm is still not over and seeks further sacrifice from the now retired general. Musharraf’s rise to power was on the back of his military credentials which means as soon as he gave up his uniform he also lost support of the very institution that brought him to power.

A retired general does not enjoy the same military tradition of unquestioned obedience as a serving general. The institution is now behind its new chief General Ashfaq Kayani whose political views, ambitions and contacts will slowly reveal itself with each passing day. The only support left behind Musharraf is US and its western allies. But US public opinion is slowly turning away from supporting an individual to restoration of democracy in the country. This does not bode well for the retired General who just sworn himself in for the second five year term.

Political leaders from PPP and PML N, two large political parties in Pakistan, have refused to accept Musharraf as President and are demanding restoration of the judiciary and constitution to its pre Nov 3 position. Major political parties, although talking of boycott, are submitting nomination papers for the upcoming elections. It is obvious that both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto need the door of election to gain access to political power. They are threatening to boycott January 8th elections because they want to buy time to reorganize their parties whose local leadership has withered during their 8 years exile from the country. In this scenario they would prefer that a limbo is created by questioning the legitimacy of General Musharraf’s re-election. They would prefer that he is forced to resign thereby elevating the chairman Senate to occupy the position which incidentally is interim Prime Minister Mohammad Mian Soomro. We have precedence of this scenario when Ghulam Ishaq Khan took over power after the demise of General Zia ul Haq. This will produce a new interim government and delay of election up to Spring 2008. This will provide ample time to both parties to create an election organization to ensure their rise to majority positions in provincial and national assemblies.

Chaudhries of PML Q on the other hand will prefer elections to be held on January 8th as they had all the time to prepare themselves for this situation. They know that it will be difficult for them to form a government in Islamabad but they will strive to maintain their hold on Punjab with help from military establishment. Despite dissolution of previous assemblies they still enjoy considerable power over the provincial establishment to use it in their favor. This is their sole reason for still supporting a retired General who used their allegiance to legitimize his rule for 8 years. But they face a formidable competition in the form of PML N. It is quite likely that PML N emerge as a leading party in the province.

In NWFP, socialist ANP has a natural tendency to align with Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and hope to achieve slight majority in the province. PML N has long history of political alliance with Jamat-e-Islami (JI) which is falling out from MMA after the true face of Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI) leader Maulana Fazl ur Rehman came to light during the current crisis. MMA has substantially damaged the political standing of JI which is historically a religious moderate organization as compared to extremist elements of JUI. Although JI leadership is insisting they will boycott the elections but they fully understand that staying out of the elections could be a political paralysis for them. JUI and PPP Sherpao both benefited from supporting the military regime. They can once again form an alliance to not only soften the image of JUI in the province but also improve their chances of forming a government. It is likely that they would need more allies to have any majority in the province.

In Sindh, Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) understands that they are at best a regional party which means they have to align with whoever has the best chance of forming a government. They have already started sending feelers to PPP to ensure their participation in the future Sindh government. MQM needs to still recover from the political damage inflicted upon them by the Chaudhries of PML Q during the judicial crisis of May 12th when PML Q was celebrating in Islamabad as Karachi shed blood of its citizens. PPP/MQM alliance should not have any problem in forming a majority provincial government.

Balochistan once again will produce a patch work of religious, socialist and ethnic parties. This does not bode well for the province. Balochistan voters should decide which major party serves their interest best and align themselves with it to get some resources for the province.

In final analysis it seems that Musharraf will be forced out from the Presidency and elections will be delayed until spring 2008. But then again politics in Pakistan does not follow any pattern and the winds of change could produce a totally unforeseen scenario.